a013  2249  06 Sep 85
PM-Farm Scene,0620
More Noses, Snouts and Beaks in the World Next Year, USDA Says
By DON KENDALL
AP Farm Writer
    WASHINGTON (AP) - The Agriculture Department says an annual count of
noses, snouts and beaks points to slightly more meat in the world
next year.
    But all of the increase will come from poultry, while global
supplies of red meat decline, the department's Foreign Agricultural
Service says. And within the red meat category, all of the decline
will result from less beef.
    In 1985, according to agency estimates, total meat production in
selected countries is expected to total 124.8 million metric tons, up
from 122.3 million tons in 1984. The forecast for 1986 is 125.3
million tons.
    A metric ton is about 2,205 pounds and is the unit most often used
in international commodity reporting.
    The red meat output for 1985 was estimated at 99.9 million tons,
including 42.4 million tons of beef and veal, 52.9 million ton of
pork, and 4.6 million tons of sheep and goat meat. Poultry meat
production this year was put at 24.9 million tons.
    Next year, the report said, red meat production could edge down
slightly to 99.7 million tons, including 41.4 million tons of beef
and veal, about one million tons less than in 1985.
    Pork production in 1986, however, was forecast at 53.6 million tons,
a gain of 700,000 tons from this year. The output of sheep and goat
meat is expected to increase about 100,000 tons to 4.7 million.
    The drop in beef output next year will be due mostly to smaller
production in the United States and the European Community, where
producers have trimmed herds this year.
    When livestock inventories are culled, it can push up meat
production temporarily. But production can then drop the following
year when culling declines or herd rebuilding takes place.
    Looking at cattle inventories in some of the countries, the report
said the U.S. tally on Jan. 1, 1986, may be about 107 million head,
down from 109.8 million at the beginning of this year. Beef
production next year may be about 10.1 million tons, down from 10.8
million tons in 1985.
    The Soviet Union, by comparison, is expected to have a cattle herd
of 120.4 million head going into 1986, down slightly from 120.8
million on Jan. 1 of this year. Beef production is expected to edge
up to 7.5 million tons from 7.4 million tons in 1985.
    Pork production is led by China, which was reported to have a hog
inventory of 306.8 million head on Jan. 1, 1985. Those will be
trimmed to around 303.6 million head next Jan. 1, the report said.
Pork output is expected to increase slightly next year to about 15.8
million tons from 15.5 million in 1985.
    By comparison, the U.S. swine herd last Jan. 1 was about 54 million
head and will be reduced to about 52 million on Jan. 1, 1986. Pork
production, at 6.7 million tons this year, may drop to around 6.6
million tons next year.
    Australia, the Soviet Union and New Zealand, in that order, are the
world's largest raisers of sheep and goats. But when it comes to
poultry meat, the United States is the big leader.
    This year the United States will produce about 7.84 million tons of
poultry meat. Coming in a distant second is the 10-nation European
Community with 4.28 million tons. Soviet output was estimated at 2.7
million tons.
    All are expected to boost production in 1986, with U.S. poultry meat
output rising to around 8.25 million tons; the EC, to 4.33 million
tons; and the Soviet Union, to 2.8 million.
    
AP-NY-09-07-85 0131EDT
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